How 41F will impact the industry

Preparedness Depot in Acworth, GA

DoglegArms

Silencer Dealer of 2015, 2016, 2017
Jul 12, 2015
1,596
660
113
Dallas, GA
www.doglegarms.com
Zip code
30157
From Silencer Shop:

"WE ARE EXPECTING THE TRANSITION TO ATF 41F TO GO THROUGH 3 STAGES:

1) Record Surge in Sales

So far we are seeing a record surge in sales of all NFA items - and manufacturers are working hard to beef up capacity to keep up with the increased demand.

Anything that's on the shelf now or that's already incoming is probably going to be sold pretty quickly.

Unfortunately, this means ATF wait times are also going to start heading up pretty quickly - which will impact your incoming Form 3 approvals. Basically, getting new inventory in a timely manner is going to get harder.

2) Major Market Drop-Off

This is the "bad news" but we don't expect it to be a long term problem.

Once ATF 41F goes into effect this summer, we expect a major market drop-off - probably the largest this market has ever seen.

There are several reasons for this:

Market Exhaustion: With customers rushing to get their orders in under the current rules, using a trust, a lot of demand is simply being moved forward. Whenever that happens, you'll find a gap where that demand would have been - which we expect to be over this coming summer & fall.

Typical Summer Slow-Down: Summer is a slow time for this industry anyway, which will compound the slowing caused by the ATF 41F implementation.

Market Confusion: With the new ATF 41F ruling will come a lot of new paperwork, customer mis-information, and rule interpretation by the NFA Branch. This will also contribute to the slowdown until the market & the NFA Branch can figure out how the new system works.

Longer Wait Times: With the increase in paperwork caused by 41F, it's highly likely that wait times will go up significantly. The ATF even mentioned this in their final ruling.

This will be mitigated - to some small degree - by a temporary surge in individual sales; but, that will be a drop in the bucket compared to the trust sales that go away.

For anybody who's been in this business for long, you know this will be the scariest phase - because you run the risk of ordering a lot of inventory to cover the surge in sales, only to have it arrive too late...

3) Rebalancing Under the New Rules

By next year, we expect to see a market rebalancing - and a continuation of growth. Mostly because silencers sell themselves, and it's hard to imagine not using one once you have.

Even though trusts are typically a better way to purchase a suppressor, we expect the new rule to push many customers into registering as an individual. It will be interesting to see what the actual trust to individual ratio is once the dust settles on this ruling.

Unfortunately, the suppressors that are in demand now probably won't be the same models customers will be asking for by the time this rebalancing occurs."

############################

I agree with most of it. Not convinced if market exhaustion will happen as soon as they anticipate. The thought of Hillary in office should keep the demand going through most of 2016. A lot of people are still unaware of 41F. And then there those that are aware but don't understand the ramifications.
 
Last edited:

SouthernSlammed

Gingerbeard Operator
Lifetime Supporter
Aug 29, 2015
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Fapville
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So, why not keep adding items to the trust? My thought is to remove anyone from the trust at this time.

Along those lines... if I add items to the trust after this effective date in summer, those items are approved, I then at a later date add someone to the trust, what then?
 
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SouthernSlammed

Gingerbeard Operator
Lifetime Supporter
Aug 29, 2015
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That's a good question, they can be amended at any time.

That's probably somewhere towards the end of all those pages, no one has gotten to it yet.

If you amend the trust, does ATF only notified of that when you make a new purchase? So, essentially, you put all your items on it, amend to add additional persons, and before adding anything to it amend to remove?!
 

Righter13

Student of life
Lifetime Supporter
Mar 24, 2015
1,788
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Greenville SC
Zip code
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That's probably somewhere towards the end of all those pages, no one has gotten to it yet.

If you amend the trust, does ATF only notified of that when you make a new purchase? So, essentially, you put all your items on it, amend to add additional persons, and before adding anything to it amend to remove?!
I was thinking that when this first came out but figured it's kinda like the sign brace thing... Better to not ask them to have everyone ask and then get a bad answer.
 
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Laufen

Beloved flaming retard
Lifetime Supporter
Mar 23, 2015
7,927
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I don't think we'll see a drop off in class III sales. Sales have been surging before the EO, and any sort of perceived "threat" almost always causes a bump. There won't be any new limits on what is obtainable, just more hoops to jump through. The most important thing for the industry has been a spotlight. Lots more people know about NFA items now and that they are legal. The ridiculous laws for purchasing a pistol in NJ didn't slow people down at all. Don't expect a catastrophic drop in sales.
 
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NWS

Not a hot midget
Administrator
Lifetime Supporter
Mar 24, 2015
2,468
2,489
113
Georgia
Zip code
30172
I don't think we'll see a drop off in class III sales. Sales have been surging before the EO, and any sort of perceived "threat" almost always causes a bump. There won't be any new limits on what is obtainable, just more hoops to jump through. The most important thing for the industry has been a spotlight. Lots more people know about NFA items now and that they are legal. The ridiculous laws for purchasing a pistol in NJ didn't slow people down at all. Don't expect a catastrophic drop in sales.


Yeah, because @Laufen with his recent first purchase of an NFA item certainly knows more about NFA sales and trends than an industry nobody like "Silencer Shop." :boink:
 

PewPewPewCo

Sniper
Mar 23, 2015
2,139
1,075
113
Georgia
I don't think we'll see a drop off in class III sales. Sales have been surging before the EO, and any sort of perceived "threat" almost always causes a bump. There won't be any new limits on what is obtainable, just more hoops to jump through. The most important thing for the industry has been a spotlight. Lots more people know about NFA items now and that they are legal. The ridiculous laws for purchasing a pistol in NJ didn't slow people down at all. Don't expect a catastrophic drop in sales.
There will undoubtedly be a huge drop in sales, at least temporarily. The Nfa trust was a driving force behind the recent industry growth.
 
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NWS

Not a hot midget
Administrator
Lifetime Supporter
Mar 24, 2015
2,468
2,489
113
Georgia
Zip code
30172
I don't think we'll see a drop off in class III sales. Sales have been surging before the EO, and any sort of perceived "threat" almost always causes a bump. There won't be any new limits on what is obtainable, just more hoops to jump through. The most important thing for the industry has been a spotlight. Lots more people know about NFA items now and that they are legal. The ridiculous laws for purchasing a pistol in NJ didn't slow people down at all. Don't expect a catastrophic drop in sales.


Also, 41P which is now 41F has nothing to do with the Obama executive action. NFA sales via trust have been surging since 2013 when 41p was announced.
 

Righter13

Student of life
Lifetime Supporter
Mar 24, 2015
1,788
1,165
113
Greenville SC
Zip code
17268
There will undoubtedly be a huge drop in sales, at least temporarily. The Nfa trust was a driving force behind the recent industry growth.
I still think trusts are the way to go. Especially with the whole every 2 years thing. I'm sure I'll buy something at least every 2 years, if not I'll just transfer an AOW.
 

Laufen

Beloved flaming retard
Lifetime Supporter
Mar 23, 2015
7,927
6,129
113
I85
Zip code
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Yeah, because @Laufen with his recent first purchase of an NFA item certainly knows more about NFA sales and trends than an industry nobody like "Silencer Shop." :boink:
It's a commodity market, and I do have some knowledge there. ;)

Any drop in sales may have more to do with people losing their disposable income in the stock market. We'll see.
 

Laces_Out_Marino

Tracker
Trusted Trader
Aug 14, 2015
575
181
113
CANTON, GA
Zip code
30115
Is anyone else getting the "Eforms down for maintenance" message. I have been checking every day and it keeps giving me the message that they shut it down 6a-6p on Wednesday's. but it says the same thing every day!
 

DarthVader

Marksman
Mar 25, 2015
1,175
390
113
Henry County
Zip code
30253
From Silencer Shop:

"WE ARE EXPECTING THE TRANSITION TO ATF 41F TO GO THROUGH 3 STAGES:

1) Record Surge in Sales

So far we are seeing a record surge in sales of all NFA items - and manufacturers are working hard to beef up capacity to keep up with the increased demand.

Anything that's on the shelf now or that's already incoming is probably going to be sold pretty quickly.

Unfortunately, this means ATF wait times are also going to start heading up pretty quickly - which will impact your incoming Form 3 approvals. Basically, getting new inventory in a timely manner is going to get harder.

2) Major Market Drop-Off

This is the "bad news" but we don't expect it to be a long term problem.

Once ATF 41F goes into effect this summer, we expect a major market drop-off - probably the largest this market has ever seen.

There are several reasons for this:

Market Exhaustion: With customers rushing to get their orders in under the current rules, using a trust, a lot of demand is simply being moved forward. Whenever that happens, you'll find a gap where that demand would have been - which we expect to be over this coming summer & fall.

Typical Summer Slow-Down: Summer is a slow time for this industry anyway, which will compound the slowing caused by the ATF 41F implementation.

Market Confusion: With the new ATF 41F ruling will come a lot of new paperwork, customer mis-information, and rule interpretation by the NFA Branch. This will also contribute to the slowdown until the market & the NFA Branch can figure out how the new system works.

Longer Wait Times: With the increase in paperwork caused by 41F, it's highly likely that wait times will go up significantly. The ATF even mentioned this in their final ruling.

This will be mitigated - to some small degree - by a temporary surge in individual sales; but, that will be a drop in the bucket compared to the trust sales that go away.

For anybody who's been in this business for long, you know this will be the scariest phase - because you run the risk of ordering a lot of inventory to cover the surge in sales, only to have it arrive too late...

3) Rebalancing Under the New Rules

By next year, we expect to see a market rebalancing - and a continuation of growth. Mostly because silencers sell themselves, and it's hard to imagine not using one once you have.

Even though trusts are typically a better way to purchase a suppressor, we expect the new rule to push many customers into registering as an individual. It will be interesting to see what the actual trust to individual ratio is once the dust settles on this ruling.

Unfortunately, the suppressors that are in demand now probably won't be the same models customers will be asking for by the time this rebalancing occurs."

############################

I agree with most of it. Not convinced if market exhaustion will happen as soon as they anticipate. The thought of Hillary in office should keep the demand going through most of 2016. A lot of people are still unaware of 41F. And then there those that are aware but don't understand the ramifications.
I think they are dead on in their assessment. Makes me wonder if some of the smaller dealers will make it. Sort of like Sandy Hook all over again, but on a smaller scale.