you heard it here first... Elon Musk prediction

Mac11FA

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I'm not sure the existence of Tesla & SpaceX are game changing yet. If Tesla succeeds in establishing electric cars as mainstream, that will be. Right now, with all the hype & gov't subsidies, they've still sold fewer electric vehicles than Nissan (whose cutting a ton of jobs because of lack of profit) & not making a profit. SpaceX has turned a profit either. The game changing companies, in my opinion, will be the ones that actually bring this stuff into everyday people's lives on a mainstream scale. To me it's the difference between modern cell phones & the niche "radiophones in rich people's cars early on.
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As I've said before, I hope Tesla succeeds, but I don't have much faith in Musk's ability to run a manufacturing operation. And, I think, that's what it takes to mainstream electric vehicles.
Actually, it is the people he has hired to run his manufacturing operation. That and his inability to stop micromanaging.
 
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Jcountry

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Hyperloop is another idea which looks awesome on a drawing board, but it’s 100% impossible to implement in real life.

For instance: How do you maintain that vacuum in the real world?
-terrorists?
-earthquakes?
 
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dial1911

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Hyperloop is another idea which looks awesome on a drawing board, but it’s 100% impossible to implement in real life.

For instance: How do you maintain that vacuum in the real world?
-terrorists?
-earthquakes?
The power required to maintain the vacuum is going to exceed any savings you'd see in rapid transit. It's always going to leak, you just have to have enough pumping power running near constantly to maintain the low pressure.
 
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Grunk

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The power required to maintain the vacuum is going to exceed any savings you'd see in rapid transit. It's always going to leak, you just have to have enough pumping power running near constantly to maintain the low pressure.
You engineers always screw things up for the dreamers! :behindsofa:
 
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I can see his angle on it though, there are some products that do better when they are introduced in a niche market; after seeing what the upper echelon finds appealing, it's then integrated into the more affordable models ... I see it as a testing ground of sorts as they gauge consumer interests.... and who knows, eventually you may be able to buy a $30K Tesla with Ludicrous mode
Was that a spaceballs reference?
 

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I'm not sure the existence of Tesla & SpaceX are game changing yet. If Tesla succeeds in establishing electric cars as mainstream, that will be. Right now, with all the hype & gov't subsidies, they've still sold fewer electric vehicles than Nissan (whose cutting a ton of jobs because of lack of profit) & not making a profit. SpaceX has turned a profit either. The game changing companies, in my opinion, will be the ones that actually bring this stuff into everyday people's lives on a mainstream scale. To me it's the difference between modern cell phones & the niche "radiophones in rich people's cars early on.
View attachment 52912


As I've said before, I hope Tesla succeeds, but I don't have much faith in Musk's ability to run a manufacturing operation. And, I think, that's what it takes to mainstream electric vehicles.
I'm only trying to remind people that Musk is a guy with physics degree who created a successful online bank (which became paypal), made electric cars both desirable and viable, took up the challenge of civilian commercial space flight, all with a significant measure of success, and all in areas where no one else had similar success in the past. That he put these things in the forefront of culture is game changing, even if others standing on his shoulders pull these things across the finish line in the future. Yes, I'd prefer that Tesla didnt need government support, but I think it was necessary given the industry animosity toward the future of electric vehicles. Also the fact that almost all of the US car manufacturers have bailed out by the government at some point in history takes the wind from those sails. In a wordy way I guess I'm saying - he's flawed, but he's still a flawed genius. He's a guy that should be fed resources and unleashed.
 
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dial1911

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I'm only trying to remind people that Musk is a guy with physics degree who created a successful online bank (which became paypal), made electric cars both desirable and viable, took up the challenge of civilian commercial space flight, all with a significant measure of success, and all in areas where no one else had similar success in the past. That he put these things in the forefront of culture is game changing, even if others standing on his shoulders pull these things across the finish line in the future. Yes, I'd prefer that Tesla didnt need government support, but I think it was necessary given the industry animosity toward the future of electric vehicles. Also the fact that almost all of the US car manufacturers have bailed out by the government at some point in history takes the wind from those sails. In a wordy way I guess I'm saying - he's flawed, but he's still a flawed genius. He's a guy that should be fed resources and unleashed.
I do not disagree with anything you said. However, Mr. Musk does not appear to be the best choice to run a company. I darn sure don't know the guy, just what I see reported (by the biased) media. And his company fired poor @Mac11FA so there's that :)
 
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Mac11FA

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I do not disagree with anything you said. However, Mr. Musk does not appear to be the best choice to run a company. I darn sure don't know the guy, just what I see reported (by the biased) media. And his company fired poor @Mac11FA so there's that :)
Naw, I kinda did that to myself. It ended up being good PR for Tesla, SET and it got me my current position so no poor me.

Musk needs to simply be a silent non-interfering partner and continue to be a visionary and inventor. He can't move on and let go of those things he set in motion. I don't think his ego will let him stay far from the limelight. I think greed may play a small part as well.
 
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Mac11FA

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Ahhhh.... maybe not yet.
Yeah, I think a woman president is next. Kinda surprised it did not happen before Obama!

If Hilary had said "let some bitch suck my husband's dick so i don't have to" she could have been in right after Bill left office. She musta been titties deep in scandal herself back then before the email shit broke the news and why sho did not run.


Side note: Bill did not inhale
Monica did not swallow
 
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Inventor? No, but he is a brilliant 'outside the box' thinker and idea guy. The mistake is to look at Tesla's current issues and look at Musk as some kind of idiot. His successes far outweigh his current problems, and the fact that things like Tesla a SpaceX even exist is game changing.

Musk founded neither Tesla or SpaceX.
 
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Kobayashi

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Musk founded neither Tesla or SpaceX.
Fair enough with regards to Tesla. He came on board a few months after the company was founded. My point is that he is a primary driver behind innovation, and certainly he was the one who was the ultimate driver of the company. The other two guys were more primarily interested in the business side over the ideas, and have since moved on to other things.

As for SpaceX, I've always understood Musk to be founder. Maybe there's some debate on that but I've never seen anything different.

My main point is that Musk is a driving force of ideas and innovation. Certainly he's flawed, I just saw the discussion devolving into "Musk is a destructive idiot" which simply isn't accurate in the big picture.
 

Mac11FA

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Another "woopsie"... Walmart sues Tesla's energy company for negligence in the installation of solar panels on their store's roofs... Seven fires have occurred per the article-

Wait ! Whut!!!! First his cars catch on fire and now the solar panels??!?!?!?! Good on WalMart for stepping up and suing that MFer!

And imagine that! It comes back to product and installation quality!

In reading the article, Musk made so many changes after buying the company that is has struggled to stay soluble to date. I am sure he would be okay with a loss north of 2 billion plus.
 
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Grunk

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Wait ! Whut!!!! First his cars catch on fire and now the solar panels??!?!?!?! Good on WalMart for stepping up and suing that MFer!

And imagine that! It comes back to product and installation quality!

In reading the article, Musk made so many changes after buying the company that is has struggled to stay soluble to date. I am sure he would be okay with a loss north of 2 billion plus.
Yeah, I think he got lucky with Amazon from that link I posted. That warehouse fire was in June 2018 & it sounds like Amazon just decided not to buy anymore but didn't sue. It feels like Musk is just doing too much (cars, solar panels, drilling, SpaceX) to really get one thing ironed out. At least to me.
 

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If it's all true, this is an interesting article:





It's a long article, but goes into details about the state of NY's $750 million tax payer funded payout to the company to build the facilities and how SolarCity has hurt Tesla since it was acquired.

I don't think Musk can plan for crap, but he is clearly one of the best ever at getting someone else to pay for his dreams. At that, I'm honestly amazed... either his talent for selling ideas or everyone else's stupidity for paying for them.
 
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Mac11FA

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If it's all true, this is an interesting article:





It's a long article, but goes into details about the state of NY's $750 million tax payer funded payout to the company to build the facilities and how SolarCity has hurt Tesla since it was acquired.

I don't think Musk can plan for crap, but he is clearly one of the best ever at getting someone else to pay for his dreams. At that, I'm honestly amazed... either his talent for selling ideas or everyone else's stupidity for paying for them.
Can't imagine it being made up. City of NY doesn't want to do anything to give Cuomo a bad rap for his part in the sham.
 
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Grunk

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If it's all true, this is an interesting article:





It's a long article, but goes into details about the state of NY's $750 million tax payer funded payout to the company to build the facilities and how SolarCity has hurt Tesla since it was acquired.

I don't think Musk can plan for crap, but he is clearly one of the best ever at getting someone else to pay for his dreams. At that, I'm honestly amazed... either his talent for selling ideas or everyone else's stupidity for paying for them.
Thanks for posting this. A lot of stuff in that article. Observations in no particular order:

Residents of NY got screwed but I don't think anybody can blame Musk for that. Governments shouldn't give tax breaks, much less money, to companies without actual, measurable goals & consequences if the company doesn't meet them. And no decades long timelines to meet goals.

This article (& several others) refer to Musk having a reputation as a manufacturing wizard. Why? From where? He founded Zip2 ( a company that did online city guides for newspapers) with his brother, sold it & started some financial transactions company that merged with Peter Thiel's company to become Paypal & got megarich when EBAY bought Paypal. Bought his way into Tesla as the majority shareholder. I don't think Tesla's manufacturing is anything to brag about. In fact, I think any of the major car companies on the planet could greatly improve it. So I don't get why Musk has this rep.

A lot of people, it seems (including Gov. Cuomo), get hooked on Musk's pronouncements in some kind of cult of personality fashion & therefore don't think normal evaluation criteria apply. I mean, Tesla has obviously got a product a lot of people want & have been willing to buy (at least with gov't. tax subsidizing) but they haven't yet shown they can be profitable off of that product.

All of Musk's operations seem like smoke & mirrors to me. I'm sure I don't understand the financing & a lot of other things but if it is so complicated he can't explain it, why risk tax money on it?
 
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dial1911

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Thanks for posting this. A lot of stuff in that article. Observations in no particular order:

Residents of NY got screwed but I don't think anybody can blame Musk for that. Governments shouldn't give tax breaks, much less money, to companies without actual, measurable goals & consequences if the company doesn't meet them. And no decades long timelines to meet goals.

This article (& several others) refer to Musk having a reputation as a manufacturing wizard. Why? From where? He founded Zip2 ( a company that did online city guides for newspapers) with his brother, sold it & started some financial transactions company that merged with Peter Thiel's company to become Paypal & got megarich when EBAY bought Paypal. Bought his way into Tesla as the majority shareholder. I don't think Tesla's manufacturing is anything to brag about. In fact, I think any of the major car companies on the planet could greatly improve it. So I don't get why Musk has this rep.

A lot of people, it seems (including Gov. Cuomo), get hooked on Musk's pronouncements in some kind of cult of personality fashion & therefore don't think normal evaluation criteria apply. I mean, Tesla has obviously got a product a lot of people want & have been willing to buy (at least with gov't. tax subsidizing) but they haven't yet shown they can be profitable off of that product.

All of Musk's operations seem like smoke & mirrors to me. I'm sure I don't understand the financing & a lot of other things but if it is so complicated he can't explain it, why risk tax money on it?
I think you and @Jcountry said it best... it's a cult mentality.

I wish I was that good at talking people out of their money.
 
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Mac11FA

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I doubt this is a problem unique to Tesla & the article points out that Model S owners can solve the problem by creating a PIN that they enter each time to "solve" the problem. But this drip, drip, drip of problems at Musk's companies can't be good for raising money since none of them are actually making money.

 
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dial1911

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I doubt this is a problem unique to Tesla & the article points out that Model S owners can solve the problem by creating a PIN that they enter each time to "solve" the problem. But this drip, drip, drip of problems at Musk's companies can't be good for raising money since none of them are actually making money.


Ha... article refers to the model S as one of the least stolen cars... that must be in total numbers not a percent of the fleet... the aren't enough of them around to be stolen.
 
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dial1911

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Don't put all your eggs in one app.... app goes down for maintenance and people couldn't unlock their cars.
 

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Not really a problem for the company, but dang people are dumb...

I think this is going to be the thing that keeps "self driving" cars from getting a big market share. I don't care how much the owner's manual or media say that you have to stay alert & ready to take over, when people hear self-driving car, they assume they can do something else. I mean, look at all the shit people do behind the wheel of regular cars! And this guy may not have planned to sleep, but was just incredibly tired but decided he could make this trip anyway because his car would "drive". My old man used to say the best way to make the roads safer was not air bags & other safety features, just permanently mount a spike bayonet in the center of the steering wheel. No more "distracted" driving.
 

Mac11FA

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I think this is going to be the thing that keeps "self driving" cars from getting a big market share. I don't care how much the owner's manual or media say that you have to stay alert & ready to take over, when people hear self-driving car, they assume they can do something else. I mean, look at all the shit people do behind the wheel of regular cars! And this guy may not have planned to sleep, but was just incredibly tired but decided he could make this trip anyway because his car would "drive". My old man used to say the best way to make the roads safer was not air bags & other safety features, just permanently mount a spike bayonet in the center of the steering wheel. No more "distracted" driving.
One of the fatalities was a guy that was watching a movie. He had driven the route hundreds of times (daily work commute) and a tractor trailer turned in front of him across the divided hwy. Car never saw the truck, drove under it decapitating the driver and kept trying to go after getting stuck in a field a ways down from the accident. At least the guy didn't suffer or kill anyone else.
 
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One of the fatalities was a guy that was watching a movie. He had driven the route hundreds of times (daily work commute) and a tractor trailer turned in front of him across the divided hwy. Car never saw the truck, drove under it decapitating the driver and kept trying to go after getting stuck in a field a ways down from the accident. At least the guy didn't suffer or kill anyone else.
“Really good movie Bud!! When you find out what happens to that nasty villain at the end, your head will explode!!”

(Too soon?)
 

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One of the fatalities was a guy that was watching a movie. He had driven the route hundreds of times (daily work commute) and a tractor trailer turned in front of him across the divided hwy. Car never saw the truck, drove under it decapitating the driver and kept trying to go after getting stuck in a field a ways down from the accident. At least the guy didn't suffer or kill anyone else.
I think we're going to find out that "self driving" vehicles aren't workable until 100% of vehicles are self driving, or that the feature can only be used on roads dedicated to self driving vehicles.
 

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I think we're going to find out that "self driving" vehicles aren't workable until 100% of vehicles are self driving, or that the feature can only be used on roads dedicated to self driving vehicles.

I agree completely. One old truck on the road will absolutely shit can the idea of a self driving car. If 100% of them are autonomous, then fine... system will work. Throw just one wrench into the system and you have catastrophe.
 
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Mac11FA

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Autonomous systems are only as good as the programming. No computer ever will be able to outthink the human mind.

The only autonomous systems that will come close are those on rails. Even those will never be 100% safe. Many places have them but the trains (subways and passenger trains) still have a driver at the controls just in case.

This is why Musk's autonomous freight lines will never work. It is bad enough his self driving cars are not safe, who would want to be on the road with trains of these 18 wheelers barreling down the highway.

If they had taken the toll lanes (those that are isolated from the main interstate and not just double white lines like on 85) and made them for trucks only, the highways would be much safer. Also, big slow downs on hilly interstates would not be as prevalent because the 18 wheelers slow the rest of the traffic when they have to slow down for steep grades.
 

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I have no sympathy for car dealer associations who traditionally use pull with state legislatures to get their own way, but how many fronts is Tesla now fighting on?

 

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I have no sympathy for car dealer associations who traditionally use pull with state legislatures to get their own way, but how many fronts is Tesla now fighting on?

Dealers associations are a bunch of bullshit. They try to dictate prices to their dealers and make them run mandatory sales, discounts, etc.. They are no better than unions.
 
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Mac11FA

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I have no sympathy for car dealer associations who traditionally use pull with state legislatures to get their own way, but how many fronts is Tesla now fighting on?

Shit, who cares?!?!?
1. It's NJ.
2. Dealer Assoc is no better than an Union or the mob.
3. Tesla will never spend a dime defending a baseless lawsuit.

Still a good article. Based on the quote below, it is on principle. Baseless at best.

"Jim Appleton, president of the Coalition of Automotive Retailer said in a statement. "Neighborhood new car dealers don't fear competition from Tesla -- which accounts for less than 1% of the new car market in New Jersey -- they simply object to unfair competition which places consumers at risk and local businesses at a competitive disadvantage."

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment."
 

Mac11FA

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Now he is afraid of SkyNet!