you heard it here first... Elon Musk prediction

AirOpsMgr

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Remember I said this first.... Tesla will be the next Delorean Motor Company.
I'm gonna have to disagree with you on this, I think he's set the groundwork to make EV the new revolution. Musk has spent the money to finally get an EV with over 300 miles of range in a car that is actually appealing to multiple levels of consumers.

That said, I think he's the one breaking down the barriers and will turn the industry on its head.
 

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I'm gonna have to disagree with you on this, I think he's set the groundwork to make EV the new revolution. Musk has spent the money to finally get an EV with over 300 miles of range in a car that is actually appealing to multiple levels of consumers.

That said, I think he's the one breaking down the barriers and will turn the industry on its head.
He may be breaking down barriers in the industry but if the people in his own plants are treated better, he will never be able to produce enough cars. No amount of automation can completely eliminate the human worker.
 

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He may be breaking down barriers in the industry but if the people in his own plants are treated better, he will never be able to produce enough cars. No amount of automation can completely eliminate the human worker.
I understand what you're saying, and I'm not discounting it, but I believe the "Green" movement will ultimately provide him a metric shit-ton of overall leverage and influence as he proceeds forward ... certain aspects of his internal biz practices will be overlooked predicated upon his product's impact.

I could be wrong, just my opinion
 

dial1911

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I'm gonna have to disagree with you on this, I think he's set the groundwork to make EV the new revolution. Musk has spent the money to finally get an EV with over 300 miles of range in a car that is actually appealing to multiple levels of consumers.

That said, I think he's the one breaking down the barriers and will turn the industry on its head.

Part of me hopes this is correct... but given their cash burn and the lack of profit... I'm afraid they're about to really lose their investors.
 

dial1911

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Elon is gonna need one hell of a coke habit to run Tesla into the ground...
Nah- nothing to do with his personal habits... except for the ones that are having such a negative effect on the stock at the moment.

I think the company is rapidly running out of money. And still not producing enough cars. I have no idea how the business model is set up, but if you're not profitable until you turn out 75 cars per day, that's a tough model to fit.
 

AirOpsMgr

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Part of me hopes this is correct... but given their cash burn and the lack of profit... I'm afraid they're about to really lose their investors.
I can see his angle on it though, there are some products that do better when they are introduced in a niche market; after seeing what the upper echelon finds appealing, it's then integrated into the more affordable models ... I see it as a testing ground of sorts as they gauge consumer interests.... and who knows, eventually you may be able to buy a $30K Tesla with Ludicrous mode
 
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EugenFJR

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Nah- nothing to do with his personal habits... except for the ones that are having such a negative effect on the stock at the moment.

I think the company is rapidly running out of money. And still not producing enough cars. I have no idea how the business model is set up, but if you're not profitable until you turn out 75 cars per day, that's a tough model to fit.
I agree, he will run out of money sooner than later. And his cars are expensive as hell and have problems. The batteries crap out around 60k miles, and they are ungodly expensive to fix, even after a minor accident. Thus the insurance companies charge out the ass to insure them. Would you want to drive a Tesla in the winter? Knowing that it might die in traffic, like we had during the snow apocalypse we had a few years ago? I can tell you that I have yet to see one up north. So what if you can park up front of mall at a recharging station. Still not worth the money for a car that only gos 300 miles at a time, and needs several hours to recharge.
 

Mac11FA

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Nah- nothing to do with his personal habits... except for the ones that are having such a negative effect on the stock at the moment.

I think the company is rapidly running out of money. And still not producing enough cars. I have no idea how the business model is set up, but if you're not profitable until you turn out 75 cars per day, that's a tough model to fit.
He also also spent a shit ton of money on the Space-X program as well as developing 18 wheelers that are electric and drive themselves.
 
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Honestly, I think that many of the self-made super rich entrepreneurs out there are on the spectrum. It allows them to focus and is really only noticable in the awkward social situations.
Social situations like, say, smoking weed and telling Joe Rogan that there is a high probability that we all live in a matrix-like psuedo-existence? Investors may stick with an audacious and far-reaching leader of a company...but his recent actions could lead investors to think he is unstable. My brother-in-law was recruited by Tesla a few months ago to help turn around their model 3 production volume, but he turned it down after two days of interviews, tours, and inspection of the plant operations. He didn't really say why he passed, just hinted that it didn't seem like a good long term venture.
 

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Would you want to drive a Tesla in the winter? Knowing that it might die in traffic, like we had during the snow apocalypse we had a few years ago? I can tell you that I have yet to see one up north.
A friend of mine bought one recently and I've seen quite a few around here (northern CO). Not sure if that qualifies as "up north" to you but we have some snow and it gets moderately cold overnight for a few months every year.
 

EugenFJR

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A friend of mine bought one recently and I've seen quite a few around here (northern CO). Not sure if that qualifies as "up north" to you but we have some snow and it gets moderately cold overnight for a few months every year.
I'm stationed at Ft.McCoy WI. I haven't see any up here...
 

Mac11FA

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I had seen the same one when I used to drive back and forth to Marrietta visiting my mom. Usually saw it in the PM in downtown Atlanta.
 

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I'm stationed at Ft.McCoy WI. I haven't see any up here...

Our controller in Lena Illinois has a model X and we have a field supervisor in NY that drives a model S.
 

Grunk

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Things reported in the Wall Street Journal that I don't think get discussed enough:

1) Tesla's "completely automated production line" is a bust. Musk admitted it in an interview. They spent massive $ to build it and had to just shut it down. Musk said (I'm paraphrasing) we had this plan that looked great on paper but it didn't work at all in the real world. We were over-confident about how easy it would be to implement. We had 'no idea' (his exact words, not a paraphrase) how difficult it is to set up an assembly line to produce that many cars on an ongoing basis.

2) Model 3 prices are closer to $50k than the hyped $35k unless you go with an austere, stripped-down version. The $1k pre-order deposits people put down for Model 3 sedans are refundable on demand. Tesla has not revealed any info on how many people want refunds due to pricing changes.

3) Tesla's model predicting sales volume without government subsidies is, obviously, untested in the real world. Nobody knows for sure what will happen to demand when government $ go away. (On a side note, why does California spend more tax money on electric vehicle subsidies than cleaning up natural forest debris that fuels wildfires?)

4) Tesla is asking suppliers for longer than normal payment periods and in some cases for suppliers to provide retroactive price cuts for components (in other words, give back $ already paid). Some suppliers are so concerned about getting paid they are placing liens on Tesla. Not a common practice in the auto industry.

Does this sound like a stable business model? Take out the celebrity worship of Musk, would it seem like a good investment? I would argue the only way it makes sense is if you believe the government will step in the way they did with GM in the not-too-distant past and Chrysler a few decades ago.

I hope I'm wrong. I want all American companies, especially manufacturers, to succeed. But, to be honest, I think you have a better shot at a stable, loving family life with one of the criminal cuties @BangBang is obsessed with.
 

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I wish them all the success...speaking of innovation...making cars in a tent!

 

dial1911

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Things reported in the Wall Street Journal that I don't think get discussed enough:

1) Tesla's "completely automated production line" is a bust. Musk admitted it in an interview. They spent massive $ to build it and had to just shut it down. Musk said (I'm paraphrasing) we had this plan that looked great on paper but it didn't work at all in the real world. We were over-confident about how easy it would be to implement. We had 'no idea' (his exact words, not a paraphrase) how difficult it is to set up an assembly line to produce that many cars on an ongoing basis.

2) Model 3 prices are closer to $50k than the hyped $35k unless you go with an austere, stripped-down version. The $1k pre-order deposits people put down for Model 3 sedans are refundable on demand. Tesla has not revealed any info on how many people want refunds due to pricing changes.

3) Tesla's model predicting sales volume without government subsidies is, obviously, untested in the real world. Nobody knows for sure what will happen to demand when government $ go away. (On a side note, why does California spend more tax money on electric vehicle subsidies than cleaning up natural forest debris that fuels wildfires?)

4) Tesla is asking suppliers for longer than normal payment periods and in some cases for suppliers to provide retroactive price cuts for components (in other words, give back $ already paid). Some suppliers are so concerned about getting paid they are placing liens on Tesla. Not a common practice in the auto industry.

Does this sound like a stable business model? Take out the celebrity worship of Musk, would it seem like a good investment? I would argue the only way it makes sense is if you believe the government will step in the way they did with GM in the not-too-distant past and Chrysler a few decades ago.

I hope I'm wrong. I want all American companies, especially manufacturers, to succeed. But, to be honest, I think you have a better shot at a stable, loving family life with one of the criminal cuties @BangBang is obsessed with.

Very good points- most of which I wasn't even aware of... I really hope they can pull it together, honestly. But I'm more and more afraid it's the next DMC.
 
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Kobayashi

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Very good points- most of which I wasn't even aware of... I really hope they can pull it together, honestly. But I'm more and more afraid it's the next DMC.
Musk's strength seems to be in the disciplines of design and engineering. This is his first venture that required manufacturing/mass production, and that's where the troubles have been centered. He has succeeded at the most difficult part - actually creating an innovative product that people are lining up to buy. I believe that either he'll sort out the issues or someone else will step in and get the difficulties straightened out. Regardless, I don't think Tesla goes the way of DMC. The product and brand are too strong for that. Worst case: Tesla is acquired by a larger company that can solve the manufacturing issues.
 
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Grunk

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Musk's strength seems to be in the disciplines of design and engineering. This is his first venture that required manufacturing/mass production, and that's where the troubles have been centered. He has succeeded at the most difficult part - actually creating an innovative product that people are lining up to buy. I believe that either he'll sort out the issues or someone else will step in and get the difficulties straitened out. Regardless, I don't think Tesla goes the way of DMC. The product and brand are too strong for that. Worst case: Tesla is acquired by a larger company that can solve the manufacturing issues.
If Musk's ego will let him sell to or form a joint venture with an established manufacturer, I think that would be an all-around win. Top-notch manufacturing would move prices down and spur serious competition and innovation.
 
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1776

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If Musk's ego will let him sell to or form a joint venture with an established manufacturer, I think that would be an all-around win. Top-notch manufacturing would move prices down and spur serious competition and innovation.
It would be killer, but the electric car thing is no longer a niche. Everyone has one coming out and nobody needs him now .
 

Grunk

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It would be killer, but the electric car thing is no longer a niche. Everyone has one coming out and nobody needs him now .
That could well be. I don't know enough about the technology to know if Tesla has stuff that would let somebody leapfrog everybody else or not. I also wonder what battery replacement and disposal costs and hassles will do to the perception of the market when that starts occurring.
 

Grunk

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It appears the Saudi's are betting against Tesla with a billion dollars:

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-saudi-arabia-invests-1bn-tesla.html
Wow! A $1 billion investment in an 11 year old company that has not brought a product to market. If any of Elon Musk's claims about negotiating with the Saudis for money to take Tesla private are true, this is a real kick in the balls for him. He reveals financial and technological info and future plans to try to get them to help him go private and not only do they say no, they drop a billion in the pockets of a competitor here in the US.
 
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Grunk

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1It may be getting a lot worse for Tesla. Headline from today's Wall Street Journal:

DOJ Opened Probe of Tesla After Musk’s Going-Private Tweet

The article is behind a paywall so I can't link to it. Lead paragraph:

Tesla Inc. TSLA -3.35% on Tuesday said the Justice Department has opened an investigation into the company following Chief Executive Elon Musk’s surprise tweet in August that he had secured funding to possibly take the electric-car maker private. The company said that last month it received a “voluntary request for documents” from the Justice Department, generally the first step in a federal investigation of this kind. Tesla said it hasn’t received a subpoena, a request for testimony or any other formal request.

And from later in the article:

The Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating Mr. Musk’s funding claim and subpoenaed Tesla seeking information from each of its directors. Some investors have sued Mr. Musk and the company, saying the CEO misled them and they lost money as a result.

A Justice Department investigation would likely be criminal because prosecutors often work in parallel with the SEC when there is an allegation of securities fraud, said Michael Liftik, a partner at Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan LLP.

“If there is a civil case to be brought, the SEC would bring it,” said Mr. Liftik, a former SEC enforcement attorney. “If the conduct is such that it’s so serious that the DOJ or the local U.S. attorney’s office views it as potentially criminal, then they investigate the criminal side.”

So both SEC & DOJ. Nothing like 2 alphabet agencies trying to ram agents up in your business. I don't think this adds anything to the link @dial1911 posted above but it does show this is getting a lot of play. Not a quiet, subtle investigation. Seems like President Trump may not be the only one with a Twitter problem.
 
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EugenFJR

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Who dose this guy think he is? Hillary Clinton?

As much as it sounds like I wanted this guy to fail... I didn't, but he simply put out a product that didn't live up to anyone's expectations.
 
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Who dose this guy think he is? Hillary Clinton?

As much as it sounds like I wanted this guy to fail... I didn't, but he simply put out a product that didn't live up to anyone's expectations.
Even at a production rate of 5000 per week, there's a 17 month waiting list for a model 3. Somebody thinks they're with waiting for.
 
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dial1911

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1776

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So, the SEC is suing Elon under the guise of 'protecting' investors and, as a result, has caused those investors to lose a fuck load of money due to the instability they instigated.....

wErE fRuM dA gUbErMiNt An WeRe HeRe 2 HaLp U
 
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Grunk

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And the hits just keep coming for Elton Musk. The article is behind a paywall so I can't link to it. From today's Wall Street Journal:

Tesla Faces Deepening Criminal Probe Over Whether It Misstated Production Figures


Tesla, with a fresh civil fraud settlement now behind it, faces a new legal problem: a deepening criminal investigation.

FBI agents are examining whether Tesla misstated information about production of its Model 3 sedans and misled investors about the company’s business going back to early 2017, people familiar with the matter say.

Action in the criminal investigation, headed by the U.S. attorney’s office in San Francisco, has intensified in recent weeks after the Securities and Exchange Commission settled separate civil charges with Tesla and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, the people said.
 

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Dane Butswinkas

I bet Dane caught it tough growing up.
 
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Grunk

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Sometimes I think Musk does this to keep people from reading too deeply into analysis of Tesla. Yesterday, the big headline was that Tesla finally launched the long promised $35,000 version of their Model 3. And then Musk takes to Twitter to pick a fight with the SEC. But, as the Wall Street Journal reports, the back story is not that great for a "growth" business:

"For starters, the standard range Model 3 is available for delivery in two to four weeks. That is a signal that the backlog of demand that Tesla has touted, as evidenced by more than 400,000 customer deposits at one point, has run dry. Worse, Tesla once again announced another round of price cuts on its more expensive Model S and X cars. A third U.S. price reduction this year is a curious decision to make if demand for a luxury product is strong.

Tesla paired the news with word that all sales will be moving to online only world-wide. That means additional layoffs and store closures—another thing that shouldn’t happen for a company that is supposed to be in hypergrowth mode.

The move calls Tesla’s precarious finances into question too. The new orders will help bring cash into the door as Tesla requires a $2,500 installment when an order is placed. That cash is much needed: Tesla has a $920 million convertible bond payment due on Friday."


So, Tesla has a convertible bond payment to make that will take 25% of their cash on hand. The fact that it's a convertible bond means that if the stock price had stayed above the strike price set when they borrowed the money, they could have paid it off with stock shares. Historically, this failure will mean even higher borrowing costs the next time Tesla needs to raise money. Couple less cash on hand and rising borrowing costs with the fact that the CFO resigned a few weeks ago and it's not encouraging.

The signs of weakening demand speak for themselves. And there were already stories circulating about how difficult it was to get repairs done of parts to do them yourself. Now all of that will have to be done online. No more dealerships anywhere. As I've said before, I want all American companies to succeed. Especially manufacturers. But I just don't see how this is sustainable. Especially if the government subsidies for buyers start drying up.
 
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Mac11FA

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Article said he was fined $20 million for the last incident... I mean damn, what's it going to take to keep his fingers off the keyboard??
Yeah and after promising to open up new stores and shit. He closed more and thr buying is going to be strictly online only.
 
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dial1911

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Mac11FA

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I'm not sure how much longer his hands will be on the wheel...

I don't know how you plan to turn out half a million cars per year, but have no service departments spread across the country.

People won't ship it back to Cali for basic maintenance.
And of course there are now claims that the cars accelerate out of control.


At least that is what the driver is saying.
 

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And of course there are now claims that the cars accelerate out of control.


At least that is what the driver is saying.
Damn, I'm on my phone and when I first looked at that pic I thought there was a huge ass snake on the shore.

48960
 

dial1911

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This is over the top enough that it's a little hard to believe, but nonetheless, this article seems to suggest Tesla/Musk have gone after whistle blowers in some pretty serious ways:

 
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